Syed Badrul Ahsan

is a political and diplomatic analyst currently based in London.

Donald Trump’s return to power in Washington has had the entire world scrambling to adopt the measures necessary to deal with him in his second term in office as President of the United States. Frankly, millions of people around the world had hoped, indeed expected, that Kamala Harris would defeat him and become the first woman to be America’s leader. That has not happened. And hence there is a flurry of activities on a global scale on how to confront the ramifications of a new Trump presidency.

From the perspective of Europe, Trump represents danger for Nato once again. When in early 2021, President Joe Biden confidently informed European leaders that America was back --- he was pointedly alluding to the antipathy to Europe by the preceding Trump administration --- he was asked by his interlocutors, ‘For how long?’ It was a fear working in them, the apprehension that the man Biden had bested at the 2020 election could well return to office given the stubborn manner in which he had refused to concede the election to Biden.

That European fear has turned out to be true. So what does Europe expect from this second Trump presidency? For one thing, Nato will be under renewed American pressure, especially owing to Washington’s demand, under Trump, that its member-states contribute more in terms of financial contributions toward ensuring their collective security. For another, there is the worse idea of Trump and his new team demonstrating a degree of apathy toward Nato that in essence will be a statement of no confidence in the organisation. Will the new men in Washington then move toward a dismantling of Nato because Trump will have other thoughts to work on in foreign affairs?

The question is best left floating in the air, for now. But what cannot be ignored is the position the incoming President will adopt on the Ukraine question. Given his pronounced friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, coupled with his scepticism about the war Kyiv and Moscow have been waging for more than two years, there is every reason for Ukrainian leader Volodymir Zelenskyy to be worried. Some weeks before the US election, Zelenskyy met Trump on a visit to America. Whether Trump was impressed by him or whether the Ukrainian was able to come away with assurances that Trump as President would defend Kyiv’s cause is not known. So on the Ukraine issue it will be a big unknown for the West. The uncertainty can only add to the growing worries in Brussels.

Trump’s victory at the November 5 election has also shocked the new Labour government in Britain. Only days before the election, the Trump campaign accused the Labour Party of interfering in the American election through some of its people openly soliciting support for Kamala Harris in the US. London has of course denied it, but the bitterness generated by that exchange between Keir Starmer’s team and Trump’s people will be there for at least quite a while. In fact, the resolve on the part of the British government to resist Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on all goods coming into the US from abroad, including Britain, will pit London and Washington on a trade-related collision course. Besides, with the renewed fear that the Trump administration will backpedal into a repudiation of climate control measures, something it did in its earlier spell in power, Ed Miliband, Britain’s Energy Secretary, has made it clear that London rather than Washington will now play the leading role in global climate control measures.

One can now expect, unless a miracle happens, for a pretty contentious relationship, at least initially, between Keir Starmer and Donald Trump. The picture is not pretty elsewhere either. The Trump administration will likely renew a trade war with China, since for years the President-elect has railed against what he called a Chinese takeover of American businesses. Temperamentally, Trump has never been known to be accommodative to people who do not agree with him. As for President Xi Jinping, it is China’s widening global role, both politically and economically, that he has been promoting over the past few years. Xi will be in power for a long time, which is as good as saying that he will sit out the next four years of Trump and wait for a new President to take charge in Washington in January 2029. Trump cannot ignore such a possibility, which is why it will be in his best interest to engage with the Chinese diplomatically.

One of the fears associated with the new Trump outfit in Washington relates to the Middle East, specifically on the Palestine question. A fairly large number of American Muslims voted for Trump this time, for they were aggrieved by the inability or unwillingness of the Biden-Harris administration to influence Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu into calling an end to the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. They certainly had a point, but their support for Trump quite ignored the fact that the incoming US leader has consistently enjoyed warm relations with Netanyahu. That being so, will Trump be in a position to compel Netanyahu into calling a halt to the atrocities carried out by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) in occupied Palestine and Lebanon? Observers will remain sceptical on this question. It was on Trump’s watch that the US embassy in Israel was moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Add to that the animosity which Trump has regularly demonstrated against Iran. He tore up, in his earlier term, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the deal on nuclear arrangement reached with Iran by the US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany (P5+1) in the Obama era. In 2020, he ordered the killing of the Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.

How will the new Trump presidency deal with Russia? Trump has promised to bring about an end to wars, presumably meaning everywhere. Will he insist that Ukraine settle for a peace deal with Russia by agreeing to have segments of its territory pass into Russian hands? And will Kyiv and with it Nato agree to such a deal? What policy will the new President adopt toward South Asia? And will he be playing a role in the current stand-off between India and Canada? Does he really mean to throw out illegal immigrants from the US? And how does he plan on doing it without arousing grave worries everywhere?

All these questions, and others, are there. The problem with Trump has always been his unpredictability and abrasiveness. And therefore all the imponderables about his new stint in power will be there. The world will be focused on the individuals he chooses to be part of his administration and the authority they will be able to exercise without interference from their President.

Trump’s 2017-2021 administration was a byword for chaos practised as policy by the President. Whether Trump will do a better job this time or renew the old chaos is the big question before the global community.