Thursday September 19, 2024 02:59 am

Challenges in the Indo-Pacific Region

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🕐 2024-06-26 20:22:17

Challenges in the Indo-Pacific Region

ASM Shamsul Arefin

Chairman, Bangladesh Foundation for Regional Studies




“Cold War” ended with a new world map. Emergence of new nations indicated new world order. Alliances of WARSAW became ineffective against NATO. Russia signed number of treaties with NATO alliance for multiple co-operations. After the World War II the economic growth slowly moved from Europe to Asian continent. The economic growth and human development indicators are reflecting the national capabilities. With the economic development the Asian countries are also been integrated with its military power. These emerging military developments are creating a balance of war capabilities among the world power. The holdings of nuclear armaments are to indicate its destructive potentials. 
Since beginning of the civilization world witnessed number of destructive wars. All these wars were designed sometimes for community leadership, sometimes for extending of mighty empires, sometimes for the religious expansionism and sometimes can be said to retain individual power. Considering the capabilities and strategic locations alliances was chosen between the countries during different periods. 
The industrial revolution started during 18th and 19th century. British, Dutch, Spanish and the Portuguese mostly came to Asia from Europe and established foothold through trade. Slowly the colonization allowed the empires to collect wealth from Asian subcontinent. This wealth was invested in diversity to develop Europe. The German, Italy, Britain, Ottoman and Greeks empires also expanded towards Africa, Europe and part of Asia. Japan expanded within Asian countries. Thousands of war was fought for all these empyreal expansion. Unaccounted people died, wounded or displaced during this period throughout the world. How much all these wars were demanded by the society or the people never been assessed or been considered. The social scientist, researcher, writers and humanitarian activists has written thousands of articles, books and produces documents, movies and also published thesis taking even lifetime, but yet to influence on its inhuman suffering and disastrous after effects on the society, culture and humanity. The peoples of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are continuing with the terrific effects of 2nd world war till now. 
With the collapse of Soviet Empire during 1990`s the effect of Cold War has reduced. The world witnessed a new world order. A by-polar world moved towards a multi-polar scenario. Tension was reduced within the society, races and ideological differences. Other than Afghan war, few isolated conflicts were observed within the region mainly on the territorial disputes. In the recent year “The Indo-Pacific” a large and diverse region is getting involved with the multiple dimensional conflicts. The growing geopolitical rivalries within Palestine-Israel, India-China are leading towards severe impacts on the society, economy, security and climate changes. The rapid military advancement among the key players with nuclear modernization is becoming challenges to the regional security and socio-political structure.
After the 1st and 2nd world war the European nations realized their economic suffering and social disorder. They attempted to integrate the European Economy and prevent future conflicts. The European Union was created by “Maastricht Treaty” during 1993 with 28 member countries. The European Union is founded on basis of representative democracy. The aim of this union is to “promote peace, values and the well-being of the citizen”. It offers freedom, security and justice without internal borders. It is designed to established internal markets; achieve sustainable development based on balanced economy and social progress. The African Union was founded during 2002. It is a continental organization with 55 member states. The aims of the African Union are to promote greater unity, territorial integrity, defend democratic principles, cooperation among member states, tackling common challenges and good governance issues. The union is having a wide ranging impact on continental peace, security and economic development.
There are 36 nations in the Indo-Pacific region. It extended through the west coast of United States to the west coast of India. More than 50% populations of the world are leaving in the region. Last few decades the region is also witnessing the first growing economic development. Countries could successfully create own brand for national identity. Presently Asian countries are having markets superiority almost all over the world. But unfortunately most of the Asian countries are facing threat from neighbors, regional powers and international players. Defence developments are becoming a competition within nations. Land and sea border conflicts are increasing with social differences. Distrust among the regional and sub-regional countries is at the highest. Many conflicts including wars were fought even recent time. Sometime these conflicts are ideological, sometime religious, and sometime political. Most of the time the conflict or war was sponsored by the external powers for their regional or global supremacy. 
During recent time Indo-Pacific region is becoming a new area of conflict due to its strategic importance. It is a rising economy, has marine resources and also having major sea route access. This sea route accesses is used for commercial and military transportation. Presently the conflicts of interests are seen between the allies of United States and China for domination. Both the power is grouping their allies for strengthening own position depending countries location and values. The Chinese military developments are somehow worrying the global interests in the Indo-Pacific region. In the recent year India is also emerging as a factor in the region. Its strategic location, diplomatic success, economic advancement, defence articulation has focused India in the world races. Indian ‘Looking East’ policy has integrated the regional framework. The growing trade, investment and energy in the region is becoming interdependence and drawing international attention to the Indian Ocean region. 
The US involvement in the Asia-Pacific is due to its increasing geo-political influence. The expansion of Chinese military influence in the Pacific region has threatened the balance of power. The US “Indo-Pacific Strategy” has been designed to include India, Japan and Australia to respond to the security threats through partnerships. South China Sea is bridging the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The Chinese military presence in the South China Sea is threatening the security of the Indo-Pacific region. This area connects Asia, Africa, Australia and America. As a global economic center 2/3rd of the global economic output is from this region. The economically dynamic countries, like India, China, Japan, Australia, S. Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia are included in this region. The significant portion of the world maritime trade passes through the ‘Strait of Malacca’. The important ports are located in the Indo-Pacific region to facilitating trade between Asia, Europe, and Africa.
The new world power strategies are developing in this region. The increasing strategic competition between United States, China, India, and Russia are on the surface. The Chinese military influence and domination on the South China Sea is concern of others. US view towards Indo-Pacific as a free, open and inclusive region. USA is also including others nations within the geography as a stake holder. The idea is to contain Chinese influence or presence in the South China Sea, East China Sea and the Indian Ocean. The unresolved South China Sea territorial dispute with China and the surrounding countries has added strategic complexity. Alfred Thayer, an US Naval officer said, “Indian Ocean will dominate Asia. The destiny of the world will be decided on its water”. Taking this strategic view probably the world power game is being designed by the actors. 
Considering the strategically importance of the region the big power alliances are also focusing on their defence infrastructural development for ensuring security of the maritime trade routes. Number of connectivity initiatives is going on for economic and defense integrations in the Indo-Pacific region. The organizations and forums like ASEAN, QUAD, AKUS, IORA, BIMSTEC and IOC is actively engaged in IOR and addressing the regional and sub regional issues for economic cooperation and maritime security. The Chinese BRI program is also shaping the economic and political landscape in the region and beyond. The BRI has become a significant factor in the Indo-Pacific power game. The “String of Pearls” is the strategic initiative of China to create networking in the India Ocean to increase geo-political influence and military presence. 
China is the second largest oil consumer of the world for its economical development. The major supply for China is transported through the Indian Ocean. The Chinese priorities are to secure a reliable supply route through the Sea Lines of Communications. China is maintaining its strategically close relation with the adjacent countries of Bay of Bengal. The idea is to have an access to create alternative route to avoid ‘Malacca Dilemma’ to maintain undisrupted supply chain. The BRI is designed to reduce its reliance on “Strait of Malacca” through which about 80% of energy is transported. Myanmar is having the connectivity to the Bay of Bengal and can provide sea port facilities connecting to the mainland of China. The BRI is offering military and commercial support to its allied countries for networking in the Bay of Bengal and nearby coasts through the ports of Gwadar, Hambantota and Sittwe. The CPEC and CMEC project is providing the sea port facilities to mainland of China for transporting oil and gas through pipeline. Some of these ports are also designed to provide Naval base facilities to Chinese Navy. These new “Big Power Rivalries” in the Asia-Pacific are indicating a new polarization on Cold War scenario. 
India is the seventh largest country with an area of 1,269,219 sq mile and also having the world highest population of 1,437,768,424 crore. India is having a border line of 15,106 km with seven bordering states. Indian coast is 7,516 km including of island territory. India shares the coast with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar. India is following a nonalignment policy from independence and maintains friendly relations with others. Indian culture is having impact over the vast region of east and west. India enjoys the membership of the major regional, sub regional and multilateral world organizations. Some alignments are contradictory but India is looking comfortable with its diplomatic capability. Indian policy was to develop its economy and human resources which was almost destroyed by the British and other colonial period. One of the richest regions became slowly poor during its independent. In the 21st century India is having its influence on the world affairs and becoming a global partner on economical development and defense affairs. 
India is maintaining a successful link between East and West. Presently India is having its vibrant Diaspora which is contributing on Indian economical development and sustainable foreign policy. India is becoming a trillion dollar economy which will have a direct impact on world affairs. India is located at the centre of maritime links in the Indian Ocean Region. Indian importance in the globe is for its rising economy, dependable military power and geographical location. India is connected with West, South, Southeast and East Asian countries through maritime routes and also is connected with the West Central Asia and South East Asia through land. The Indian “Look East Policy” has contributed greater engagement with the East and South East Asian countries. The re-designing of Indian defence and rising economical capability in respect to China will shape the Indian geo-political and geo-economical role to the influence over the next decade. 
After the India–China war during 1962, India-Pakistan war in 1965 and India China war during 1967 the authorities realized the short comings of its defence establishment. Considering its location and the growing geo-political importance India articulated its defense goal. Presently India has the second largest standing army and is one of the fast growing naval powers. India is the fourth powerful fire power country in the world index. Indian also having the capability of producing sustainable defence hardware including fighter planes and submarines. India`s target is to become one of the five defence export countries in the world. The defence export target is five billion dollar by 2025. In the new world order India having a role to balancing military power in the region and beyond. The Indian cooperation with Mongolia, Singapore, Vietnam, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has opened a new strategic dimension. In the recent year India did participated many defense exercises with USA, France, UK, Russia, China, Thailand, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Mongolia and Australia. All these exercises have provided opportunities to know each other`s capability, training procedure and battlefield cooperation.
Within the Indo Pacific region “Bay of Bengal” is also becoming a hot bed with its new strategic importance. Bay of Bengal is located closer to the geographic center of the Indo-Pacific region. Bay of Bengal is the largest bay in the world and having India on the west and Thailand to its east. The coastal countries are India, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. Bay of Bengal provides the key transit linkages between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Oceans. It also the major trade and energy route to East Asian countries. 25% of the world traded goods are crossing through this Bay. The oil and liquefied natural gas from Persian Gulf are transported through this corridor. BIMSTEC is providing opportunities to the “Look East” policy of India and “Look West” policy of Thailand for further integration. Bay of Bengal is having strategically importance to both China and India. 
The USA is having its military presence in the Asia Pacific region from 2nd world war. US is having around 400 hundred military bases with 3,00,000 troops. 60% of the US Naval fleet remains in the Pacific region. The major deployments are in Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Guam and Hawaii. These bases are having major influences on “Inter capitalist competition”. The US great power game been articulated considering the rise of China. During the period of Barack Obama, US “East Asia Strategy” significantly shifted its foreign policy towards Asia. US heavily invested in the East Asian and South East Asian countries those who all are at the close proximity to China. 
Indo-Pacific strategy made PACOM responsible on focusing “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”. US military ties developed with South Korea, Australia, Philippines, Singapore and Japan. The US “Trans-Pacific Partnership” is also known as “Pivot to Asia”. US aggressive policy in the Pacific became concerned to China and it decreased the possibilities of cooperation between US and China. During COVID pandemic world witnessed a declined economy. It was hard to survive for some. Before nations could regain its economic sufferings, conflicts has stated within nations in different regions. Russia-Ukraine war in Europe, Palestine-Israel war in the Middle East, Iranian conflict in the Gulf and India-China border conflict has created tension in the region and beyond. Ukraine war has affected the world economy; Palestine war created inhuman suffering with ethnic cleansing. Thousands of Civilian and children has been killed in Palestine within a very short period. Iranian nuclear armaments issues are indicating new US-Middle Eastern crisis. The South China Sea maritime boundary conflict with China with the other costal countries is raising world issues. India-China-Pakistan-Bhutan border disputes are also moving beyond region. Myanmar civil war has displaced Muslim Rohingya people and they have taken shelter in the bordering countries. An over populated country like Bangladesh has sheltered more than millions Rohingya Muslims on humanitarian ground without considering own financial capability and security threats. All these issues are becoming indicating factors towards a new world order or a new world polarization. 
Asia pacific region was known as a zone of peace. With a homogeneous atmosphere nations are advancing towards modernizations. The backbone of these development is a sustainable home grown economy and people`s dedication. After the 2nd world war the defence expenditure was a minimum in the Asian countries. Within a span of 50 years, the Asian economy has become an open challenge to the western `war economy` which suffered heavily more than few decades. Considering the future military supremacy and economical consequence, new war scenario has come up in the different region. Indo-Pacific region is not out of it. 
The recent geo-political and geo-strategically tension between the US and China is dividing the Asian countries within blocks. The global scenario is again getting gloomy and looking like cold war period. Chinese aggressive foreign policy is supported by its financial indicator. Chinese military is one of the fastest growing military forces in the world. Chinese navy is trying to dominate from Japan Sea to Indo-Pacific even extending towards African region. Chinese long time territorial dispute with Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, Philippines, Borneo and India is continuing as a security threats to all these regional countries. The land and maritime disputes are mainly for resources and strategically influence. The creation of artificial Island chain around the Sea coast of China including placement of nuclear armaments is a security threat to others. The Island chain is extending Chinese own sea space and squeezing others. Chinese military deployment in the region has threatened the balance of power in the Asia Pacific. Chinese Belt and Road Initiatives are also indicating its extending presence in the different parts of the world. 
Presently Asia Pacific reason is projected a zone of conflict in the world affairs. Super powers are articulating own power game in this reason. Economic imperialism is now turning towards defence conflict for regional supremacy. The US counters strategy policy against China on Indian Ocean creating a hot bed of confrontation. Number of alliances in different forms is being formed within the regional countries and also involving external super powers. The mutual defence treaty between the United States and Republic of China (Taiwan) during 1954 was intended to defend the island of Taiwan from invention by the People Republic of China. US defence policy towards Taiwan has outlined a new military alliance QUAD where US, Japan, India Australia as the member. Another forum named AUKUS is with the membership of US, UK, Japan and Australia. The recent development of QUAD Plus and AUKUS Plus is also a significant development in the region. Presently India is having sustainable defence alignment with Japan, South Korea, Viet Num, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia within the region. All these alliances and forums are designed mainly to contain the Chinese influence in the region and beyond. US Burma Act is also a concerning factors in the Bay of Bengal Region. The counter China policy in the region and beyond is getting aggressive day by bay.
China is expecting to become number one economy of the world beating USA. India is following with its rapid growth. Japan and South Korea is having sustainable economy. Bangladesh, Thailand, Viet Num and Sri Lanka are also moving towards a developing nation. Presently Asian countries are having significant contributing towards world economy. Recent world growth attention is towards Asian Continent. With dedications Asian countries has become a manufacturing hub for the world. Human development indicators are also satisfactory. APEC, ACD, ASA, PECE, SASEC, BIMSTEC, BBIN, SAARC, IORA, MRC, MGC, APC, SPECA, SCO, ASPAC, CAREC countries having significant cooperation with common agenda. Economic and security cooperation has enhanced connectivity and has created interdependency. Asian manufacturing countries are having almost common market in the USA, Europe, Middle East and African countries. Imports and exports also indicate the common route and destinations. For maintaining a secure supply chain the Asian countries are almost dependent on each others. 
BRICS is an intergovernmental organization is opening up with new investment opportunities within the geo-political bloc. The founding countries are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. They are the member of the G-20 groups. Lately Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and United Arab Emirates added to these initiatives and numbers of countries are on the process of joining. It is having a coordinated effort to develop bilateral relations, equality, and non-interference for mutual benefits. The new development bank is becoming the basket of BRICS reserve currency projecting an alternative to dollar. Presently number of countries within the BRICS membership is also the part of US dollar participating groups. World financial organizations like World Bank, IMF, IBRD, IFC, IDA, ICSID and MIGA are influenced by dollar including western markets. Multilateral transactions system is yet to be balanced by other currency at this moment. On the other side US financial sanctions are also restricting countries for using by-lateral currencies. Considering the countries development goal, financial support program, defence cooperation and Commercial alignment, whether the BRICS alliances can be the part of de-dollarization process and same time can sustain national growth yet to be assessed. 
Most of the Asian countries are still living below the poverty level. National economy is controlled by few groups or individuals. Rich people are getting richer and poor becoming poorer day by day. Cities are growing and villagers are leaving houses for security, education, medical and collection of food. Grow together remains a political slogan all over. Other side defence development budget is getting more priority in the national economy. One gun is having how much ammunition is more concern than an individual is getting how much calorie a day. The globe is entering in a new world order by 2040. New generation with new technology is going to rule the world. Artificial Intelligence will be reaching how far probably the present scientists are yet to predict. World is likely to witness a new socio-political, socio-economical and Socio-cultural order. Considering the new world order, can the Asian countries look for an “Asian Union” which may facilitate to bring out the nations from conflicts of interests and armed races for a sustainable development goal. 
Looking at the present world scenario, the super powers could not stop the inhuman suffering and killings in Ukraine, Palestine and Myanmar. UN is helpless. Same way Taiwan China, North Korea-Japan and India-China issues are likely to drag the Asian nation into a major conflict. USA is a common factor to all. How much the Asian Region will be benefited by US China power conflict time to decide? Considering the regional issue, Kevin-Rudd, the Australian Prime Minister mentioned “Washington and Beijing must create long term cooperative strategies that accommodates each other`s interest. Doing this would significantly reduce miscalculation and the likelihood of conflict”. He also mentioned “US rebalancing is not purely a military one but, rather part of a broader regional diplomatic and economic strategy that also includes the decision to become a member of the East Asia Summit and plans to develop the Trans-Pacific Partnership, deepen the United States strategic partnership with India, and open the door to Myanmar.”