MILITARY ANALYSIS ON PROSPECT FOR ROHINGYA REPATRIATION AND OPTIONS FOR BANGLADESH
Lt Gen (Retd) Mohammad Mahfuzur Rahman, PhD
Former Principal Staff Officer, Armed Forces Division, Prime Minister’s Office
It has been six years since the massive exodus of Rohingyas
took place in August 2017. Initially it was perceived that Myanmar cannot get
away for very long with atrocities and crime against humanity of such
magnitude. Despite regional power’s support and some permanent members support
in UN Security Council the condemnation of the act was overwhelming worldwide.
Bangladesh’s diplomatic initiative bilaterally as well as taking some members
of ASEAN on board there was a memorandum of understanding signed in November
2017 between Bangladesh and Myanmar on Rohingya repatriation. In fact, that
created hope among many about resolving the refugee issue quickly. To my
appreciation the expulsion of Rohingyas from Rakhine was a systematic,
well-orchestrated military operation. With my background I understood the drama
of taking back the Rohingyas was also a portrayal of military operation. In
fact, it is part of a deception plan and psychological warfare. Any military
operation without political objective is a nonsensical waste of resources.
TATMADAW generals being a bunch of meritocratic cunning professionals would not
waste resources.
Every military operation at strategic level has a political
‘End State’ and identification of `Centre of Gravity’. My understanding the
political ‘End State’ of Myanmar was ‘Rakhine is free of Rohingyas’ and `Centre
of Gravity’ likely could be ‘Political Will’ of Bangladesh whether to go into
military conflict with Myanmar on Rohingya issue. This was substantiated that
Bangladesh will not go into military options when TATMADAW conducted the
‘clearing operations’ in 2016 in Rakhine. In that, about 87,000 Rohingyas were
expelled from Rakhine to Bangladesh. To achieve the end, the ways and means
they employed were military operations and resources at the disposal of the
military. So what is happening now may be an `Operational Pause` of Myanmar
Military Operation, when dusts settle down Myanmar may push the rest of the
Rohingyas from Rakhine over time. In the big picture, the activities now Junta
is undertaking in regard to the Rohingya issue could be in a ‘Conflict
Termination Phase’ of military strategic level operation. If Junta is in power
and senior General Min Aung Hla is calling the shots or Myanmar elite in the
polity is afflicted by Bamar (Dominant Ethnic Community) supremacy, taking back
Rohingya could be a far cry.
However, we might see some China led initiative for
repatriation or token repatriation, this could be considered as activities of
conflict termination phase of military operation on the part of TATMADAW. As a
student of ‘Structural Realism’ and geopolitics I see the Chinese repatriation
initiative to portray as a world peace broker, responsible stabilizing power
(as they have done between Iran and KSA and proposed peace between Ukraine and
Russia). This is an aspiration signature to graduate from regional to world
power. The other issue China would like to avoid is volatility in and around
Myanmar because of her energy security interest (Security of Gas and Oil
pipelines from Sittwe Port, Myanmar to Kunming, China).
The UN, the West, the Liberals and the Democracies will
express their concerns, provide humanitarian support to Rohingyas, express
solidarity with Bangladesh and sporadically impose limited sanctions on Myanmar
Junta (which they are immune to). However, when the question of national
interest shall arise the politics of reality could be different. Even in 2020
foreign direct investment in Myanmar grew by 10%. Today major investors in
Myanmar are some of the leading democracies.
So what are the options open for Bangladesh?
Bangladesh must do everything possible to keep the Rohingya repatriation issue alive and on the table. Beside, traditional bilateral and multilateral approach, a track two approach may be helpful to maintain political engagement with United League of Arakan (ULA), political wing of Arakan Army (AA) and National Unity Government (NUG).
Empowering Rohingyas through education, leadership
development and media campaigns which could be a good idea to frame their own
narrative and share to shape world consciousness in the plight for human
rights.
Currently Junta is in back foot after the coup in 2021 that
followed by atrocities against its own civilian population consequently, some
of the dissident groups especially AA in Rakhine, People’s Defence Force of
NUG, Chin National Army, Karen National Liberation Army and many have become
headache for TATMADAW. This is the time Junta may consider greater concessions
in the Rohingya repatriation issue if Bangladesh is willing to utilize and
manipulate all tools available to get leverage in negotiation. Nonetheless, the
legal aspect in International Court of Justice (ICJ) and International Criminal
Court (ICC) against Myanmar and Junta leadership could create additional
pressure, especially if Bangladesh could follow up with ICC for a quick arrest
warrant against Gen Ming Aung Hla and top perpetrators of genocide, that would
provide enough dividend. Yet, Dhaka needs to develop a credible military
deterrence to caution Junta from taking any misadventure of pushing rest of
Rohingyas from Rakhine to Bangladesh in future.
Above all the ‘Rohingya Repatriation Issue’ should not be
taken and handled as business usual, a concerted effort is necessary where
synchronization, orchestration and synergy among all organs working on the
issue are of paramount importance. Hence having a ‘Rohingya Commission’ under
the Prime Minister’s Office may need serious consideration.